One of the most common questions I get from collectors is:
"What's the next card to go up?"
The truth is, I think a lot of people are asking the wrong question.
What I want to know is:
- How many exist?
- How many PSA 10s exist?
- How many more PSA 10s are likely to be created?
Because while hype can drive prices in the short term, scarcity is what tends to drive prices over the long term.
And scarcity isn't just population.
It's population combined with gem rate.
The Mistake Most Investors Make
A lot of collectors see a card with a low population and immediately assume it's scarce.
Others see a card with a huge population and immediately dismiss it.
Both approaches can be wrong.
What matters is understanding how supply is likely to change in the future.
Let's look at some examples.
The Moonbreon Problem
Umbreon VMAX Alternate Art.
The modern king.
PSA Population:
38,000+
Gem Rate:
69%
Despite those huge numbers, the card remains one of the most valuable modern Pokémon cards ever produced.
Why?
Demand.
Everyone wants one.
But here's the interesting question.
If another 20,000 raw copies suddenly surfaced tomorrow, how many would become PSA 10s?
The answer is a lot.
That's why I personally struggle to classify Moonbreon as scarce.
It's desirable.
Very desirable.
But scarcity and desirability are not the same thing.
The Poncho Pikachu Myth
This is where people get uncomfortable.
Mention Poncho Pikachu and most collectors immediately think "rare."
But are they?
Many Poncho Pikachus have PSA populations approaching or exceeding 3,000 copies.
Some have gem rates approaching 90%.
Again, that's not a criticism.
They're incredible cards.
They're iconic.
They're historically significant.
But I think many collectors confuse rarity with popularity.
Ponchos are expensive because everyone wants them.
Not because there are only a few hundred copies floating around.
The Card That Changed My Thinking
Sylveon EX RC32 from XY Generations Radiant Collection.
Population:
10,000+
Gem Rate:
3%
Read that again.
Three percent.
On the surface, many investors will dismiss this card because of the overall population.
But that's missing the point.
This card is condition scarce.
Most copies simply don't gem.
That dramatically limits future PSA 10 supply.
To me, that's far more interesting than a card with a population of 2,000 and a gem rate of 80%.
Why I Love Looking At Gem Rates
Gem rates tell you something population reports can't.
Future supply.
A card with:
- 500 PSA 10s
- 90% gem rate
can become 2,000 PSA 10s surprisingly quickly.
A card with:
- 500 PSA 10s
- 3% gem rate
probably can't.
That's a massive difference.
My Favourite Modern Example
Gengar & Mimikyu GX Alternate Art.
Population:
4,500
Gem Rate:
46%
This is what I call the sweet spot.
Popular Pokémon.
Fantastic artwork.
Reasonable population.
Reasonable gem rate.
Strong collector demand.
It's one of the best examples of demand and scarcity working together.
The New Modern Reality
Now let's look at something truly eye-opening.
2025 Mega Charizard X ex Special Illustration Rare.
Population:
45,000+
Gem Rate:
61%
Think about that for a second.
This card already has a population larger than many entire vintage sets.
Could it still increase in value?
Absolutely.
Will demand drive it higher?
Maybe.
But from a pure scarcity perspective, it's hard to argue that a card with 45,000 graded copies is rare.
The Cards I'm Personally Chasing
This is where my collecting philosophy differs from a lot of the market.
If I'm putting away cards for the long term, I'm increasingly drawn toward cards where future PSA 10 supply is naturally restricted.
Cards like:
Base Set 1st Edition Charizard
Population:
5,600
Gem Rate:
2%
EX Dragon Frontiers Gold Star Mew
Population:
4,300
Gem Rate:
2.3%
Those gem rates are brutal.
And that's exactly why I like them.
Because every year that passes, it becomes harder and harder to meaningfully increase the PSA 10 population.
The market can print more modern cards.
It can't print more gem mint Gold Stars.
The Future Supply Test
Whenever I'm evaluating a card, I ask one question:
"If 10,000 raw copies surfaced tomorrow, what happens?"
For Moonbreon?
Thousands of new PSA 10s.
For Ponchos?
Probably hundreds or thousands more.
For Radiant Collection Sylveon?
Almost none.
For Gold Star Mew?
Very few.
That distinction matters.
A lot.
Final Thoughts
Some collectors like to know the latest sale price.
Some like to know what influencers are buying.
Some like to know what's trending on social media.
I like to know:
- Population
- Gem Rate
- Future Supply
Because eventually the market figures out what is genuinely scarce.
And while hype comes and goes, true scarcity has a habit of sticking around.
The next time you're researching a card, don't just ask how many exist.
Ask how many more can realistically be created.
That answer might be far more important.